EUR/USD is still trying to hold the 1.0500 resistance level to strengthen the bulls’ control. It sold off yesterday, which pushed it to the support level of 1.0 3. From there, it returned to the resistance at 1.0550 and settled at 1.0 90 at the time of writing. What is expected of the euro-dollar? The € , level is in the rearview mirror and the next big move is likely to be higher, says NatWest Markets. The UK-based bank and global investment bank notes in next year’s currency research that the peak of fear over the eurozone’s energy situation has now passed. The position confirms that the energy crisis of 2022 dominated the main picture of the euro, pushing its value to a multi-year low of $0.9536 in September. The most important factors of the EUR / USD exchange rate must continue to be viewed mainly through the balance of payments and exchange rate changes due to energy prices. The trade deficit widened in 2022 as the price of energy imports rose sharply after Russia cut its gas exports to the region, leaving the region in a current account deficit for the first time in years. This weakening means that the value of the euro has become very sensitive to global investment capital. However, looking ahead, NatWest expects positive net capital flows to offset the euro area’s new trade deficit against the euro. However, the risks of weakening assumptions lie in energy prices, and the cold winter may make investors focus on the issue of supply again. A warm and windy autumn helped to increase gas supply in the euro area, and the price of gas also fell, but it will be particularly cold in the region in December, when consumption may increase significantly. So the analyst added: „The winter may be colder than average, but it cannot be taken as a base case. At the same time, it seems that the estimates contain an unrealistically high probability of such a dangerous condition.” „It is unlikely that EUR/USD will return to cyclical lows in 2023,” he adds. And „the fall of EUR/USD should also be slowed by the rebalancing of central bank reserves.” A strength of $ , in 2022 means that central banks will have to balance holding rates against the dollar and in favor of currencies like the euro. As a result, NatWest notes, this could mean that managers have to sell dollars to buy other currencies with every increase in US dollar reserves. At the same time, the dollar is expected to weaken in the coming months as Fed rates peak along with pessimism about the global economy. However, NatWest’s forecasts for EUR/USD are relatively weak: 1.05 at the end of the first quarter, 1.06 at the end of the second quarter, 1.07 at the end of the third quarter and 1.08 at the end of the year. EUR/USD forecast today: My technical view on the development of the currency pair EUR/USD has not changed. The currency pair still has a chance to rise while it is stable. Above the 1.0 00 resistance, it jumped to the 1.0560 resistance level. These gains are enough to push technical indicators to overbought levels. The pair is ready for a profitable sale that has taken place. I still maintain that this position is behind the strongest and most sustained strength of the dollar. On the other hand, if the selling activity moves to the support levels of 1.0 20 and 1.0330, the trend will start to change to the downside. The Euro-Dollar exchange rate today is influenced by the statements of the Central European Governor Lagarde and the number of unemployment claims in the United States.

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