The Bank of England’s monetary policy committee will meet next week. Rabobank analysts expect a rate of 75 basis points to 3.00% from 2.25%. It would still be the biggest rate increase this cycle, they explain. They expect interest rates to rise to .75 percent. Key quotes: “After the mini-budget debacle at the end of September, we raised our November MPC request from 50 to 100 bps. We have lowered our forecast to 75 basis points as most of the political and financial market volatility has subsided. This is also the consensus among economists.” „The central bank must show the market that it is aware that confidence in the UK’s institutional framework is damaged, but that crisis management is no longer needed. However, the increase of 75bps would still be the UK’s biggest this cycle. We believe it will also be a one-off, allowing the central bank to return to a more gradual pace of 50 basis points and then raise rates by 25 basis points this winter. „Inflation should remain around 10 percent in the coming months, but growth prospects have clearly weakened. Although the August monetary policy report was gloomy and predicted a fifteen-month recession, we expect more of this gloom rather than less.

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